The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. They're just facts about the vote. Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. 3. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Not anymore. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Trump gave them hope. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Want to dive deeper? Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. We believe this was a mistake. What are your thoughts on this article? Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. In 2020, a single. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Their concerns are real. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Telegram Telegram It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). our Gitlab account where you can Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Jeff. Until this year. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. 9. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. (subject to censorship). It's the wrong question. ET. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. These counties could play an . President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. 3. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? Read about our approach to external linking. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. (Sorry, not sorry.) We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Seriously. There are 391 such counties. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania | OZY With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Voter Demographics (9). a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. They simply vote on merit. 6. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. 2020 Election (1210) The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Yes, another Hillsborough! Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! That report was issued on Nov. 12. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Free and open-source. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Read about our approach to external linking. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. 11. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. This county voted with the popular vote each time. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. The matters that way on their minds are real. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them.

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